![]() If Barry was to strengthen prior to landfall, its winds wouldn’t necessarily weaken under proceeding well inland. The distinction between land and water is murky across much of coastal Louisiana, and a hurricane can’t necessarily tell the difference between the Gulf and a warm swamp in terms of heat and moisture flux. However, given the environment, the risks are certainly there. So a round of rapid intensification prior to landfall is a distinct possibility.įorecasting rapid strengthening is an extremely difficult problem, and a quick pop to Category 2 or higher is by no means certain. Surface water temperatures just south of Louisiana are running a scalding 89-92 degrees Fahrenheit, and while these waters are shallow, the amount of ocean heat content available in this area approximates late August or early September. Moderate northerly wind shear is expected to keep intensification in check through the next 36-48 hours, but the area of divergent steering currents it will be moving into on Friday is a highly supportive environment for efficient ventilation of intense convection. Watch Video: Widespread flooding in New Orleans Hot temperatures could cause rapid intensificationĪ final risk factor is the potential for rapid intensification of Barry on approach to the coastline. Current hydrological forecasts from NOAA are that it will be close to that threshold on Saturday. With Mississippi River levels in New Orleans roughly four feet from the top of the levees currently, there is potential for a major disaster if the combined impacts of rain and surge exceed this mark. Storm surge advisories have already been issued for eastern Louisiana, where a storm track passing to the west is a worst-case scenario as southeast winds would drive surge up the river. Much of the Mississippi River is already in or near flood stage in this area.Ī foot of rainfall won’t help matters, but the real threat is coastal surge on top of the flooding and precipitation. The spring and early summer have been exceptionally wet across much of the Plains and Midwest, and with the Mississippi River draining most of the middle third of the United States, that pig in the python has worked its way into Mississippi and Louisiana. Inundating rainfall impacts in Louisiana will be exacerbated by a second risk factor: high river levels. Hurricane season 2019: Our guide has everything you should know about preparing for the next stormĮuro ensemble members are spread between the two extremes, with the ensemble mean close to the NHC official forecast of a western Louisiana track near Lafayette by late Saturday. That means the storm could slip further west toward eastern Texas if the high pressure is a little stronger, as shown on the UKMET model, or bend more north towards eastern Louisiana per the GFS and HWRF if the trough is stronger. A ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners will move Barry slowly west-southwest over the next two days to a position south of Louisiana, but a Great Lakes trough is likely to turn the storm north toward the coast on Friday and Saturday.īy Friday, Barry will be close to the dividing line between the influence of the western ridge and the eastern trough. ![]() The track forecast remains tricky, as steering currents in the northern Gulf are weak. ![]() Nothing in this non-discrimination statement shall require Barry University to act in a manner contrary to the beliefs and teachings of the Catholic Church or the University mission statement.View Gallery: Hurricane season: See the most devastating storm photos from 2018 No person shall be retaliated against for reporting violations or concerns about prohibited discrimination or bias through appropriate University channels. Further, every University employee has an obligation to observe Barry University policies and implementation of federal and state law as a term of employment. Every student of this institution has a responsibility to conduct himself/herself in accordance with this policy as a condition of enrollment. Every member of the University community is expected to uphold this policy as a matter of mutual respect and fundamental fairness in human relations. This policy applies to students, employees, applicants and trustees with respect to participation in any program, benefit, activity or student/employment opportunity offered by the University. Barry University does not discriminate on the basis of race, creed, color, ethnicity, national origin, ancestry, religion, gender, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, genetic information, familial status, marital status, pregnancy, age, disability status or veteran status.
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